Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017: Reality Versus Delusion

Unlike previous time during the assembly elections of UP and other states, I’m very much conscious of one-sided analysis that set forth only those factors which go against the BJP. The anti-BJP people just get carried away with the factors which are against the BJP rather than trying to know the ground reality. There were some who term Sanghi anyone who brings out the winning factors of BJP. This type of behavior remaining in bubble and illusion helped BJP a lot in carrying out its activity without facing any counter. The simple fact is that if you are unaware of the trick and favorable factor helping your enemy, you will not able to counter them. This is almost what happened in UP elections. The anti-BJP sections were almost not aware of the gimmick of the BJP.

These days when Gujarat elections campaign are in spotlight, the similar situation is emerging out. People are getting carried away with some one-sided analysis. They are expecting the revival of the Congress in the state. The factors which are being cited to show the anti-BJP and pro-Congress mood of the people are: to quote a report of The Hindu “there is no escaping the agrarian distress, failing businesses, growing unemployment, an education system in shambles, mounting attacks on Dalits, corruption, and even potholed roads when one gets off the superhighways”. Do these issues really matter to the people to the core? In another way, do the people really cast their vote on the basis of issues in India?

On the other hand, Gujarat has been the laboratory of communal polarization and the BJP has been ruling over the state through communal politics for more than two decades. People are easily prone to be affected by communal feeling. In a communal atmosphere, they are not ready to think about any issue howsoever it is important for them, all these fall on the deaf ear. It will all depend on how seriously they take these issues and the opposition translates them into the hearts and minds of people.

The other  factor that is being cited to show the anti-BJP mood of the Gujarat is the presence of huge crowd in the electoral rally of Congress and Rahul Gandhi. There are media reports of the absence and less crowd of people in the rally of BJP. But to what extent the presence of the crowd can translate into the votes? Does the mood of public stay consistent till the polling day? Surging crowd in the electoral rally is not as big factor as it is portrayed.

The Patel agitation and Dalit anger can be considered one of the major factors that will severely hit the rulling party BJP. After the crackdown on their agitation and the arrest of their leader Hardik patel, Patels, who account for 16% of the Gujarat population,  rebelled against the party. They had been vote bank of the BJP for the last two decades.  Dalit, who account for 7% population of the state, always remained the vote bank of the Congress. It is also fact that there is a feeling of anti-incumbency and people are disappointed with the BJP because of the demonetization and GST. But the main concern is that whether the Congress is actually in the position to catch this anti-BJP anger and disappointment  of the people. Since the Congress stayed out of power for two decades in the state, it has been frail in terms of leadership, networking, activities and presence among the common people. On the other hand, the BJP is very far better than the Congress. PM Narendra Modi, who was three time chief minister of the Gujarat itself, is a larger life face of the BJP and he is aware of the pulse and nerve of Gujarat politics. He will put all his efforts and play all the trick that he did earlier for saving the power in the Gujarat. There are two major gimmicks around which his politics moves. One is communal polarization and the another one is dismantling the rival. It will be interesting to see how the Congress counters the BJP and Modi’s communal polarization. Communal politics can be countered with caste politics or a strong pitch of issue-based politics. In both of them, Congress does not look strong because of the  absence of the leadership.